Major fisheries face stock reductions of 30% upwards if increase in emissions isn’t halted, warns UN report
A report for the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warns that fish catches off the coast of Peru could decrease by more than a third by the end of the century if emissions continue to rise. This is part of a broader decline expected globally due to climate change, affecting many countries and territories. The report examines two emissions scenarios: a “low emissions” scenario with net-zero emissions by 2050 and less than 2°C warming by 2100, and a “high emissions” scenario with continuing emissions growth and 3-4°C warming by 2100.
In the low-emissions scenario, fish availability stabilizes with little to no change for most countries. However, in the high-emissions scenario, significant declines of 30% or more are predicted in 48 countries, including a 37.3% drop for Peru and 30.9% for China.
The report, created by the Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), emphasizes the benefits of reducing emissions to minimize end-of-century biomass losses. It also highlights the need for a holistic approach to managing marine resources in the face of climate change, integrating adaptive fisheries management with broader agrifood policies and considering connections between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial systems.