The National Retail Federation (NRF) is forecasting that U.S. retail sales between November 1 and December 31 will climb 3.7 %-4.2 % compared to last year – pushing total holiday spending to an astonishing US$1.1-1.2 trillion. This would mark the first time holiday retail sales exceed the US$1 trillion threshold. (SeafoodSource)

On a per-person basis, consumers are projected to spend about US$890 on gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items — the second-highest amount in the survey’s 23-year history.

Why this strong spending outlook?

• Despite inflation, tariffs, and a partial government shutdown, consumers still appear ready to spend. NRF President-CEO Matthew Shay remarked that the holiday period has a sort of “moat” around it – meaning people plan for it and prioritize it.
• Wages in the U.S. have been outpacing inflation for over 30 months, and unemployment remains low. These factors are helping support consumer confidence.
• Home-based celebrations are expected to be a trend this season. Analysts think more consumers will focus on in-home gatherings and value-oriented shopping rather than out-of-home experiences.
• In particular, the food and grocery sector may see gains: Analysts say that even if volumes dip, higher prices and promotional activity could drive revenue, and categories like seafood may benefit as holiday meals are prepared at home.

Risks to watch

• A key wildcard is the continued government shutdown and disruptions to federal spending, especially the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). NRF warns that delays in federal payments could dampen consumer demand.
• While consumers are spending, some are trading down or, in their words, seeking “value wherever they can.” Tariffs and inflation are still weighing on household budgets.

What this means

• Retailers may want to lean into value-promotions and highlight in-home holiday experiences – especially food and gathering-items.
• Suppliers and categories linked to home meals (groceries, frozen, seafood) might want to prepare for higher demand, but also watch for volume vs. pricing effects.
• Policymakers and industry watchers should keep an eye on federal funding flows and broader economic signals, since they could influence spending behavior even as the headline numbers look strong.

In short: despite economic clouds on the horizon, the holiday retail season looks set to shine bright – but with important caveats.